Iraq: Will protests cause a government collapse? No, no, not near term, but Sadr’s forces are strong. They’re not going away. It’s going to be harder and harder to govern Iraq as a unitary state. Trump: Is his “America First” policy coherent? You know, it’s reasonably ideologically coherent. It’s that, you know sort of, allies are basically zero-sum relationships with the United States. It’s un-implementable as well, but it’s coherent. Europe: Will nationalism become a long-term movement? Yeah, I mean long-term meaning we’re going to see much more kind of ‘every nation for itself’ behavior and stronger ideologies, especially around those countries, those nations, both within European states and also inside them, I think will become much more salient. Syria: Will Assad re-take Aleppo? That is the big question right now. I think the answer is yes. The question is whether it’s soon or whether it’s after a long and bloody siege. The war is about to take another unfortunate turn. Germany: Should Merkel worry about the far right? She absolutely should. The Alternatives for Deutschland aren’t going away—it’s kind of like the European nationalism question—and their new agenda is considerably more virulent in terms of Muslims and more problematic for Merkel’s agenda.