UN: Who will be the next Secretary-General? I have no idea! The Russians, the Americans, want completely different outcomes and it’s too early. But Guterres, of course, is way in front right now, and he’s the odds-on favorite. I wouldn’t put a strong bet there. Kashmir: Is more violence coming? Sadly, yes. The Pakistanis, the Indians both moving towards more nationalism in the coming years. Syria: Is the ceasefire dead? Well of course it’s dead! But you know what? We can make another one really fast; like smoking, it’s so easy to quit, you do it all the time. Italy: Will Renzi stay in office through the end of his mandate? Uh, you know, he’s trying to get away from that promise to step down if he loses the referendum. That’s going to be hard to do, but on balance, I think he’s going to win the referendum. It’s really tight, but I think he’s going to stay. Snowden: Will Obama pardon him? He wants to do a lot of things; this is not one of them. The former attorney general thinks he’s a good guy, not Obama’s attorney general right now, and not Obama. I think the answer is no. Merkel: Will she run again? One hundred percent, yes she will. And uh, I’m not sure that’s good for Europe. We will see.